The End of Historv?
The National Interest, Swnker I989
Francis Fukuyama
Francis Fukuyama is deputy director of the State Departments policy planning staff andformer analyst at the
RAND Corporation. This article is based on a lecture presented at the University of Chicagos John M. Olin Center
and to Nathan Tarcov and AllanBloom for their support in this and many earlier endeavours. The opinions
expressed in this article do not rejlect those of the RAND Corporation or of any agency of the U.S. government.
In watching the flow of events over the past decade or so, it is hard to avoid the feeling that
something very fundamental has happened in world history. The past year has seen a flood of
articles commemorating the end of the Cold War, and the fact that peace seems to be breaking
out in many regions of the world. Most of these analyses lack any larger conceptual framework
for distinguishing between what is essential and what is contingent or accidental in world history,
and are predictably superficial. If Mr. Gorbachev were ousted from the Kremlin or a new
Ayatollah proclaimed the millennium for a desolate MiIDle Eastern capital, these same
commentators would scramble to announce the rebirth of a new era of conflict
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