Exchange rates during financial crises
1
Exchange rate movements during the global financial crisis of 200709 were unusual.
Unlike in two previous episodes the Asian crisis of 199798 and the crisis following
the Russian debt default in 1998 in 2008 many countries that were not at the centre
of the crisis saw their currencies depreciate sharply. Such crisis-related movements
reversed strongly for a number of countries. Two factors are likely to have contributed
to these developments. First, during the latest crisis, safe haven effects went against
the typical pattern of crisis-related flows. Second, interest rate differentials explain
more of the crisis-related exchange rate movements in 200809 than in the past. This
probably reflects structural changes in the determinants of exchange rate dynamics
such as the increased roleof carry trade activity.
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